Happy Valley Hardball with a sabermetrics twist

In Part I of my Youngstown State analysis, I broke the game down into its 114 discrete plays and attached a measurement to each play. That measurement is the win expectancy for one of the teams following the play (note the win expectancy of the two teams always adds up to 100% so when I say I am measuring and tracking one, I am effectively doing both teams).

That win expectancy number give me a very good snapshot of the game status at any point in time. But there’s another measure that might be of considerable interest when looking at any one play. That measure would be the change in the win expectancy number from the play before. That numbers tells us how much a play potentially contributed toward a win (I say potentially because unless an offensive play actually leads to a run, the reality is that it contributes nothing even though it may be a big play at the moment).

With that in mind, let’s take a look at which plays in the YSU game were the biggest (common sense will tell you what many of them are but you may have a surprise or two regarding their actual ranking).

Here’s a graph of Penn State’s top ten positive plays from that game.

Legend:

#84 = Landon Nakata’s bases loaded walk with two out in the ninth to tie the game.
#89 = Rob Yodice reaches second on a two base error by the CF with no out in the tenth.
#81 = Scott Kelley’s one out two run single with the bases loaded in the ninth.
#114 = Lou Picconi’s bunts and reaches first to load the bases with no outs on a YSU fielder’s choice in the 13th.
#113 = Scott Kelley’s single in the 13th that puts runners on 1st and second with no out.
#105 = Joe Blackburn’s 12th inning grounder that the SS misplays putting runners on 1st/2nd with no outs.
#80 = Rick Marlin’s one out walk in the ninth to load the bases with PSU down 4-1.
#112 = Jack Greenberg’s lead off single in the 13th inning which became the actual winning run.
#104 = Landon Nakata’s lead off single in the 12th inning.
#115 = Wes Borden’s sacrifice fly to win the game in the 13th.

Some observations from the key plays.

1. Youngstown State did their fair share to hand the game to us in the late innings. Five of those ten key plays were YSU miscues, either walks, errors, or a failed fielder’s choice on a bunt,
2. The numbers reinforce how important it is to get the leadoff runner on in extra innings. The leadoff batter got on in the 10th, 12, and 13th innings and they each made the top ten play list.
3. The actual game winning play didn’t rank higher because it occurred with no outs. The three plays immediately before the sacrifice fly were more important because they got the eventually winning run to third and loaded the bases with no out. Even if Blackburn had failed to deliver, we still had the winning run on third and thus still had a high probability of winning the game.
4. The walk to Nakata was the game breaker. YSU was just a pitch away from winning the game until Landon walked.
5. The team had excellent opportunities to win in the tenth and twelth innings when they got leadoff runners on but couldn’t bring them around to score. This team doesn’t have much firepower and they can’t afford to miss opportunities like that often.
6. These numbers are looking at the game from an offensive perspective. What shouldn’t be overlooked is Mike Pierce’s pitching performance that kept us in a position to win.

I hope you find the numbers and analysis as interesting as I do.