Happy Valley Hardball with a sabermetrics twist

For the sixth time in eight tries, Penn State dropped the opening game of their weekend Big Ten series, this time losing to Minnesota 11-7. PSU went with their ace Mike Wanamaker in order to set up their rotation for next week’s Big Ten tournament. That still didn’t do them any good as Minnesota, one of the worst offenses in the Big Ten, managed to rough Wanamaker up for 9 runs, 7 earned, on 12 hits in just four innings of work.

The good news is that the rest of the contenders for the Big Ten tournament didn’t do much better. Illinois’ game with Purdue was postponed but the other three teams who have a chance to overtake Penn State all lost. Ohio State lost to Iowa 4-3, MSU lost to Indiana 9-2, and Northwestern lost to Michigan 9-4.

Interestingly, Indiana’s win over MSU suddenly means that they might actually have a shot at making the tournament. The Hoosiers entered the weekend trailing both Northwestern and Michigan State for the last spot in the field by 2 1/2 games. By beating the Spartans and having NW also lose, all of a sudden the Hoosiers are only 1 1/2 out. They will still need to first and foremost sweep Michigan State but if Indiana wins the opening game of their doubleheader tomorrow, you can bet that the Spartans will start to feel the pressure. Even with a sweep though, Indiana will also need some help. They would need Northwestern to drop 2 of their next three but when you consider that the Wildcats are playing Michigan who is 24-4 on the season in the Big Ten, it’s quite likely that NW won’t be able to take two from Michigan. Tomorrow’s Indiana/MSU series will be interesting to watch.

Here’s an update on the scenarios that need to happen for (1) clinch a spot in the big ten tournament and (2) PSU to grab the third seed overall.

(1) Clinch a berth:

- win two games against Minnesota
- win one game against Minnesota AND have MSU lose one more to Indiana OR Northwestern lose one more to Michigan OR have Ohio State lose two more to Iowa
- lose the rest against Minnesota AND have MSU lose one more to Indiana OR have Northwestern lose at least two more to Michigan OR have Ohio State lose two more to Iowa.

(1) Claim third seed:

- win three games against Minnesota AND have Purdue at least split with Illinois.
- win two games against Minnesota AND have Purdue win three from Illinois AND have Ohio State lose one more game to Iowa.
- win one game against Minnesota and have Purdue sweep Illinois AND have Ohio State lose two more to Iowa AND have Michigan State lose once to Indiana.

I suspect that PSU will have clinched a spot in the tournament by the end of the day tomorrow and, hopefully, to still have a shot at third.