Happy Valley Hardball with a sabermetrics twist

As bad as the Nits are in their opening game of their weekend Big Ten series (they are 2-6), they are good in the second game of their series (they’re 6-2 in second games).

PSU’s 5-3 win coupled with Indiana’s 7-6 win over Michigan State clinched a spot in the Big Ten tournament for the Nits. The only question remaining is their seed. At the moment (assuming Ohio State completes their win over Iowa – they lead 11-2 in the sixth inning of a seven inning game), there are three teams fighting for the third seed.

Currently, PSU sits in a tie for third with Illinois who dropped their first game today with Purdue. Both teams are a game ahead of Ohio State. Unfortunately for PSU, the Illini have played fewer games than Penn State which means their winning percentage is slightly better than Penn State’s. Since seeding is based on win percent, that effectively means that Illinois has a half game lead on Penn State.

Here’s how the Nits can claim third.

- win their two remaining games with Minnesota AND have Purdue win one of their three left with Illinois.
- win one game with Minnesota AND have Purdue win two of three against Illinois AND have Ohio State lose one of their two remaining games with Iowa.
- lose both games with Minnesota AND have Purdue sweep three from Illinois AND have Ohio State drop both of their games with Iowa.

PSU looks to have a very good chance at getting that coveted #3 spot which would ensure that, with an opening day win in the Big Ten tournamant, they would avoid Michigan in the second round.

NOTE: Ohio State did go on to win 12-2.