For PSU, here’s the sum totals of all the players for the YSU game.

Perhaps the most surprising thing, is how big a game Landon Nakata had. I think most people would have given the player of the game award to Scott Kelley for his 2-4 performance. But Nakata’s numbers are clearly ahead of Kelley’s.

Most of Nakata’s contribution came from his bases loaded walk in the ninth that we’ve previously talked about. But Landon had some other big plays in the game that got a little overlooked due to Scott’s heroics. It was Landon’s sacrifice fly in the eighth that drove in PSU’s original run. Landon also had a big leadoff single in the top of the 12th and a double in the first to get into scoring position. He went 2-3 with 2 walks and 2 rbi and that’s a pretty good line in any game.

So Landon Nakata gets the unsung hero of the game award for his performance.

On the opposite side of the coin, a casual glance a Cory Wine’s 1-5 box score wouldn’t immediately uncover the tough day that he had. When you consider that Joe Blackburn, Rob Yodice, and Rick Marlin went a combined 0-14, you might think it surprising that Wine’s name would be at the bottom of this list. However, Cory had a couple of bad at bats that got him there, the worst being the bases loaded inning ending double play that he grounded into with the winning run sitting on third in the 12th. Also troublesome was his ground out in the tenth. We had the winning run on third with one out and he failed to get the ball out of the infield. That’s twice that he had the winning run on third base with one out and he didn’t get it done. Those two at-bats were big time disappointments and earned Cory a LOT of negative contribution points.

One of the biggest things to take out of this game would be the performance of the little guys. We basically got nothing from the big guns, i.e. Wine, Marlin, Blackburn, and Yodice and still found a way to come up with an improbable win. Big time props to the little guys.

That win expectancy number give me a very good snapshot of the game status at any point in time. But there’s another measure that might be of considerable interest when looking at any one play. That measure would be the change in the win expectancy number from the play before. That numbers tells us how much a play potentially contributed toward a win (I say potentially because unless an offensive play actually leads to a run, the reality is that it contributes nothing even though it may be a big play at the moment).

With that in mind, let’s take a look at which plays in the YSU game were the biggest (common sense will tell you what many of them are but you may have a surprise or two regarding their actual ranking).

Here’s a graph of Penn State’s top ten positive plays from that game.

Legend:

#84 = Landon Nakata’s bases loaded walk with two out in the ninth to tie the game.
#89 = Rob Yodice reaches second on a two base error by the CF with no out in the tenth.
#81 = Scott Kelley’s one out two run single with the bases loaded in the ninth.
#114 = Lou Picconi’s bunts and reaches first to load the bases with no outs on a YSU fielder’s choice in the 13th.
#113 = Scott Kelley’s single in the 13th that puts runners on 1st and second with no out.
#105 = Joe Blackburn’s 12th inning grounder that the SS misplays putting runners on 1st/2nd with no outs.
#80 = Rick Marlin’s one out walk in the ninth to load the bases with PSU down 4-1.
#112 = Jack Greenberg’s lead off single in the 13th inning which became the actual winning run.
#104 = Landon Nakata’s lead off single in the 12th inning.
#115 = Wes Borden’s sacrifice fly to win the game in the 13th.

Some observations from the key plays.

1. Youngstown State did their fair share to hand the game to us in the late innings. Five of those ten key plays were YSU miscues, either walks, errors, or a failed fielder’s choice on a bunt,
2. The numbers reinforce how important it is to get the leadoff runner on in extra innings. The leadoff batter got on in the 10th, 12, and 13th innings and they each made the top ten play list.
3. The actual game winning play didn’t rank higher because it occurred with no outs. The three plays immediately before the sacrifice fly were more important because they got the eventually winning run to third and loaded the bases with no out. Even if Blackburn had failed to deliver, we still had the winning run on third and thus still had a high probability of winning the game.
4. The walk to Nakata was the game breaker. YSU was just a pitch away from winning the game until Landon walked.
5. The team had excellent opportunities to win in the tenth and twelth innings when they got leadoff runners on but couldn’t bring them around to score. This team doesn’t have much firepower and they can’t afford to miss opportunities like that often.
6. These numbers are looking at the game from an offensive perspective. What shouldn’t be overlooked is Mike Pierce’s pitching performance that kept us in a position to win.

I hope you find the numbers and analysis as interesting as I do.

First some sabermetrics background. Several years ago, sabermetrician extraordinaire Tom Tango analyzed several years worth of major league baseball data and developed a situation analysis view of a teams chances of winning a ball game based on the score, the inning, the number of outs, and what bases, if any, are occupied. So, he’ll tell you that if a team is batting in the bottom of the seventh, trailing by one run, but with the bases loaded and no one out, they will win the game 68.2% of the time even though they are trailing at that moment. Tango called this measure “Win Expectancy”. (UncleLar Note: Tango is just one of many who have developed similar stats – for an good read on the subject try Dave Studeman’s “The One About Win Probability” from the Hardball Times).

Using Tango’s formulas it’s possible to plot a ball game based on the results of every play in the game. There were 114 plays in the marathon 14 inning Youngstown State/PSU game on Wednesday night. Here’s a plot of Penn State’s winning expectation following every one of those 114 plays.

Basically, Penn State did little for the first eight innings. The Lions got mighty close to the bottom of that chart before turning it around in the ninth inning. In fact, there were basically two low points worth noting in the game.

In the top of the ninth, YSU was leading 4-1 and they had the bases loaded with no outs (that would be at play #72 in the chart). At that point, things are looking pretty bleak for the Lions. According to Tango, the Nits had only a 1.3% chance of winning the game in that situation (basically the odds were 75:1 against them). That’s when pitcher Mike Pierce really stepped up, striking out the next batter, throwing out the YSU runner at the plate on a squeeze bunt attempt, then getting the third out of the inning on a fly ball out.

While they dodged on huge bullet, the Nit’s chances of winning didn’t improve that much, only going up to 4.15% (or about 25:1) as they came to bat.

Here’s the play-by-play of that half inning:

Penn State 9th – M.. Yodice grounded out to ss. Ernst reached on a throwing error by 3b. Wine singled up the middle; Ernst advanced to second. Marlin walked; Wine advanced to second; Ernst advanced to third. Kelley singled to right center, 2 RBI; Marlin advanced to second; Wine scored; Ernst scored, unearned. Boonie pinch hit for Heath. Boonie grounded out to p; Kelley advanced to second; Marlin advanced to third. Borden intentionally walked. Nakata walked, RBI; Borden advanced to second; Kelley advanced to third; Marlin scored, unearned. Blackburn grounded out to 2b. 3 runs, 2
hits, 1 error, 3 LOB

Yodice’s ground out to start the inning is what led to the second low point I noted (play 77 in the above chart). Trailing by three runs, with one out and no one on in the bottom of the ninth, a team has a 1.77% chance of winning (a little less than 60:1). That’s when things really got turned around. Here’s a chart of the rest of that half inning (plays 77 through 85 in the graph above).

That ninth was a remarkable inning. PSU went from twice having less than a 2% chance of winning the game to actually being a 65% favorite to win as Blackburn was up with the bases loaded and two out. They didn’t pull it out then but they continued to play well in the extra innings (Pierce kept retiring the YSU batters and PSU kept getting runners on) eventually winning 5-4 in thirteen.

Huge props to the team for coming back that way.