Happy Valley Hardball » Sabermetric Stats http://www.happyvalleyhardball.com with a sabermetrics twist Sat, 14 Aug 2010 19:28:27 +0000 en hourly 1 http://wordpress.org/?v=3.0.1 Week Ten Pythagorean Standings http://www.happyvalleyhardball.com/2010/05/12/week-ten-pythagorean-standings/ http://www.happyvalleyhardball.com/2010/05/12/week-ten-pythagorean-standings/#comments Wed, 12 May 2010 06:56:07 +0000 UncleLar http://www.happyvalleyhardball.com/?p=2235 Team WinPct Pyth% Luck 1 Michigan State .644 .651 -.007 2 Michigan .630 .636 -.006 3 Purdue .609 .621 -.012 4 Ohio State .568 .546 .022 5 Minnesota .449 .520 -.071 6 Illinois .511 .508 .003 7 Penn State .457 .482 -.025 8 Indiana .511 .481 .030 9 Northwestern .438 .428 .010 10 Iowa .457 .403 .054 ]]> http://www.happyvalleyhardball.com/2010/05/12/week-ten-pythagorean-standings/feed/ 0 5/2/10 Pythagorean Standings http://www.happyvalleyhardball.com/2010/05/04/5210-pythagorean-standings/ http://www.happyvalleyhardball.com/2010/05/04/5210-pythagorean-standings/#comments Wed, 05 May 2010 03:00:19 +0000 UncleLar http://www.happyvalleyhardball.com/?p=2164 Despite a disastrous weekend in State College, Michigan State managed to hold onto their first place Pythagorean Standing. Penn State’s performance moved them closer to where the Pythagorean ratings have suggested they should be most of the season, i.e. somewhere in the middle of the pack.

Team WinPct Pyth% Luck
1 Michigan State .667 .664 .003
2 Michigan .643 .658 -.015
3 Purdue .605 .623 -.018
4 Ohio State .615 .569 .046
5 Minnesota .432 .514 -.082
6 Penn State .465 .490 -.025
7 Indiana .500 .486 .014
8 Illinois .500 .472 .028
9 Northwestern .419 .388 .031
10 Iowa .429 .365 .064
]]> http://www.happyvalleyhardball.com/2010/05/04/5210-pythagorean-standings/feed/ 0 Week 8 Big Ten Pythagorean Standings http://www.happyvalleyhardball.com/2010/04/26/week-8-big-ten-pythagorean-standings/ http://www.happyvalleyhardball.com/2010/04/26/week-8-big-ten-pythagorean-standings/#comments Mon, 26 Apr 2010 09:19:54 +0000 UncleLar http://www.happyvalleyhardball.com/?p=2103 Team WinPct Pyth% Luck 1 Michigan State .703 .734 -.031 2 Michigan .641 .659 -.018 3 Purdue .590 .629 -.039 4 Ohio State .629 .574 .055 5 Indiana .526 .514 .012 6 Minnesota .400 .486 -.086 7 Illinois .500 .480 .020 8 Penn State .436 .427 .009 9 Northwestern .395 .372 .023 10 Iowa .432 .367 .065 ]]> http://www.happyvalleyhardball.com/2010/04/26/week-8-big-ten-pythagorean-standings/feed/ 0 Conference Pythagorean Rankings – Week Seven http://www.happyvalleyhardball.com/2010/04/19/conference-pythagorean-rankings-week-seven/ http://www.happyvalleyhardball.com/2010/04/19/conference-pythagorean-rankings-week-seven/#comments Mon, 19 Apr 2010 20:25:52 +0000 UncleLar http://www.happyvalleyhardball.com/?p=2055 Somehow Penn State has managed to stay ahead of Northwestern.

Team WinPct Pyth% Luck
1 Michigan State .800 .719 .081
2 Michigan .571 .655 -.084
3 Ohio State .650 .649 .001
4 Purdue .550 .626 -.076
5 Illinois .500 .541 -.041
6 Indiana .545 .534 .011
7 Minnesota .333 .450 -.117
8 Iowa .400 .383 .017
9 Penn State .429 .378 .051
10 Northwestern .261 .329 -.068
]]> http://www.happyvalleyhardball.com/2010/04/19/conference-pythagorean-rankings-week-seven/feed/ 0 Week Two B10 Conference Pythagorean Rankings http://www.happyvalleyhardball.com/2010/04/12/week-two-b10-conference-pythagorean-rankings/ http://www.happyvalleyhardball.com/2010/04/12/week-two-b10-conference-pythagorean-rankings/#comments Mon, 12 Apr 2010 17:18:05 +0000 UncleLar http://www.happyvalleyhardball.com/?p=2001 Northwestern’s two wins over PSU didn’t help them in the Pythagorean rankings either as they remain in this basement also. Minnesota looks to be the hardluck team to date as their actual winning percentage trails their Pythagorean ranking by over .100 points.

Team WinPct Pyth% Luck
1 Michigan State .800 .756 .044
2 Ohio State .650 .631 .019
3 Michigan .571 .620 -.049
4 Purdue .550 .586 -.036
5 Illinois .500 .560 -.060
6 Indiana .545 .515 .030
7 Minnesota .333 .449 -.116
8 Penn State .429 .376 .053
9 Iowa .400 .364 .036
10 Northwestern .261 .313 -.052
]]> http://www.happyvalleyhardball.com/2010/04/12/week-two-b10-conference-pythagorean-rankings/feed/ 0 Big Ten Pythagorean Rankings – Conference Play Week One http://www.happyvalleyhardball.com/2010/04/05/pythagorean-rankings-big-ten-conference-play-week-one/ http://www.happyvalleyhardball.com/2010/04/05/pythagorean-rankings-big-ten-conference-play-week-one/#comments Mon, 05 Apr 2010 13:56:30 +0000 UncleLar http://www.happyvalleyhardball.com/?p=1925 Team WinPct Pyth% Luck 1 Michigan State .800 .761 .039 2 Ohio State .650 .620 .030 3 Michigan .571 .611 -.040 4 Illinois .500 .588 -.088 5 Purdue .550 .585 -.035 6 Indiana .545 .517 .028 7 Minnesota .333 .437 -.104 8 Penn State .429 .374 .055 9 Iowa .400 .344 .056 10 Northwestern .261 .282 -.021 ]]> http://www.happyvalleyhardball.com/2010/04/05/pythagorean-rankings-big-ten-conference-play-week-one/feed/ 0 Big Ten Pythagorean Standings http://www.happyvalleyhardball.com/2010/04/02/big-ten-pythagorean-standings/ http://www.happyvalleyhardball.com/2010/04/02/big-ten-pythagorean-standings/#comments Fri, 02 Apr 2010 20:56:42 +0000 UncleLar http://www.happyvalleyhardball.com/?p=1866 As we enter Big Ten play, here’s the conference standings based on the teams’ Pythagorean Winning Percentages.

For the uninitiated, the Pythagorean Win Percentage is a formula invented by the legendary Bill James that projects a teams expected winning percentage based on the number of runs that they score and the number of runs that they give up. The difference between a team’s actual winning percentage and their projected Pythagorean winning percentage is often referred to as the Luck Factor. A team that has a positive Luck Factor is winning more than they should and is thus considered “Lucky”.

In the Pythagorean standings, Ohio State is in second place despite their actual .500 record. They actual project to have a winning percentage that is close to league leader Indiana so their season to date might be considered quite unlucky.

Team WinPct Pyth% Luck
1 Indiana .800 .745 .055
2 Ohio State .500 .705 -.205
3 Michigan .571 .693 -.122
4 Michigan State .400 .614 -.214
5 Iowa .550 .579 -.029
6 Purdue .545 .526 .019
7 Illinois .333 .507 -.174
8 Minnesota .650 .440 .210
9 Penn State .429 .421 .008
10 Northwestern .261 .296 -.035

For the uninitiated, the Pythagorean Win Percentage is a formula invented by the legendary Bill James that projects a teams expected winning percentage based on the number of runs that they score and the number of runs that they give up. The difference between a team’s actual winning percentage and their projected Pythagorean winning percentage is often referred to as the Luck Factor. A team that has a positive Luck Factor is winning more than they should and is thus considered “Lucky”.

In the Pythagorean standings, Ohio State is in second place despite their actual .500 record. They actual project to have a winning percentage that is close to league leader Indiana so their season to date my be considered quite unlucky.

]]> http://www.happyvalleyhardball.com/2010/04/02/big-ten-pythagorean-standings/feed/ 0 Pythagorean Standings http://www.happyvalleyhardball.com/2009/04/27/pythagorean-standings-4/ http://www.happyvalleyhardball.com/2009/04/27/pythagorean-standings-4/#comments Mon, 27 Apr 2009 21:41:26 +0000 UncleLar http://www.happyvalleyhardball.com/?p=1246 I had planned on switching to a Pythagorean Standings using just conference data but I’ve been unable to find conference only statistics that I can easily access, so we’re sticking with the overall rankings.

Team Runs Scored Runs Allowed Pyth % Delta
1 Minnesota 276 196 0.665 -0.028
2 Ohio State 338 253 0.641 -0.115
3 Illinois 282 221 0.620 -0.065
4 Indiana 290 264 0.547 0.059
5 Michigan. 263 243 0.539 -0.008
6 Penn State 271 268 0.506 -0.019
7 Michigan St 232 233 0.498 0.073
8 Purdue 260 271 0.479 0.032
9 Iowa 257 291 0.438 0.079
10 Northwestern 209 242 0.427 0.111
]]> http://www.happyvalleyhardball.com/2009/04/27/pythagorean-standings-4/feed/ 0 Pythagorean Standings http://www.happyvalleyhardball.com/2009/04/14/pythagorean-standings-3/ http://www.happyvalleyhardball.com/2009/04/14/pythagorean-standings-3/#comments Tue, 14 Apr 2009 07:15:27 +0000 UncleLar http://www.happyvalleyhardball.com/?p=1142 Later in the week, I’ll calculate the standings just using conference results.

Team Runs Scored Runs Allowed Pyth % Delta
1 Ohio State 282 190 0.688 -0.100
2 Minnesota 206 148 0.660 -0.007
3 Illinois 205 157 0.630 -0.094
4 Penn State 241 213 0.561 -0.014
5 Michigan. 217 197 0.548 -0.046
6 Indiana 240 221 0.541 0.056
7 Purdue 217 234 0.462 -0.038
8 Iowa 195 223 0.433 0.078
9 Michigan St 163 190 0.424 0.080
10 Northwestern 150 197 0.367 0.134
]]> http://www.happyvalleyhardball.com/2009/04/14/pythagorean-standings-3/feed/ 0 Pythagorean Standings http://www.happyvalleyhardball.com/2009/03/24/pythagorean-standings/ http://www.happyvalleyhardball.com/2009/03/24/pythagorean-standings/#comments Tue, 24 Mar 2009 20:48:15 +0000 UncleLar http://www.happyvalleyhardball.com/?p=904 Whenever I post these I am alway impressed with how close to the actual standings they come out. These are through Sunday’s games.

Team Runs Scored Runs Allowed Pyth % Delta
1 Ohio State 192 118 0.726 -0.124
2 Minnesota 132 88 0.692 0.008
3 Michigan. 150 103 0.680 -0.057
4 Illinois 132 100 0.635 -0.071
5 Penn State 139 114 0.598 0.019
6 Indiana 150 155 0.484 0.134
7 Purdue 109 120 0.452 -0.019
8 Iowa 119 137 0.430 0.018
9 Michigan St 107 137 0.379 0.079
10 Northwestern 83 135 0.274 0.052
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