Penn State Baseball Well-Represented in Collegiate Summer Leagues – PENN STATE OFFICIAL ATHLETIC SITE via kwout

For PSU, here’s the sum totals of all the players for the YSU game.

Perhaps the most surprising thing, is how big a game Landon Nakata had. I think most people would have given the player of the game award to Scott Kelley for his 2-4 performance. But Nakata’s numbers are clearly ahead of Kelley’s.

Most of Nakata’s contribution came from his bases loaded walk in the ninth that we’ve previously talked about. But Landon had some other big plays in the game that got a little overlooked due to Scott’s heroics. It was Landon’s sacrifice fly in the eighth that drove in PSU’s original run. Landon also had a big leadoff single in the top of the 12th and a double in the first to get into scoring position. He went 2-3 with 2 walks and 2 rbi and that’s a pretty good line in any game.

So Landon Nakata gets the unsung hero of the game award for his performance.

On the opposite side of the coin, a casual glance a Cory Wine’s 1-5 box score wouldn’t immediately uncover the tough day that he had. When you consider that Joe Blackburn, Rob Yodice, and Rick Marlin went a combined 0-14, you might think it surprising that Wine’s name would be at the bottom of this list. However, Cory had a couple of bad at bats that got him there, the worst being the bases loaded inning ending double play that he grounded into with the winning run sitting on third in the 12th. Also troublesome was his ground out in the tenth. We had the winning run on third with one out and he failed to get the ball out of the infield. That’s twice that he had the winning run on third base with one out and he didn’t get it done. Those two at-bats were big time disappointments and earned Cory a LOT of negative contribution points.

One of the biggest things to take out of this game would be the performance of the little guys. We basically got nothing from the big guns, i.e. Wine, Marlin, Blackburn, and Yodice and still found a way to come up with an improbable win. Big time props to the little guys.

That win expectancy number give me a very good snapshot of the game status at any point in time. But there’s another measure that might be of considerable interest when looking at any one play. That measure would be the change in the win expectancy number from the play before. That numbers tells us how much a play potentially contributed toward a win (I say potentially because unless an offensive play actually leads to a run, the reality is that it contributes nothing even though it may be a big play at the moment).

With that in mind, let’s take a look at which plays in the YSU game were the biggest (common sense will tell you what many of them are but you may have a surprise or two regarding their actual ranking).

Here’s a graph of Penn State’s top ten positive plays from that game.

Legend:

#84 = Landon Nakata’s bases loaded walk with two out in the ninth to tie the game.
#89 = Rob Yodice reaches second on a two base error by the CF with no out in the tenth.
#81 = Scott Kelley’s one out two run single with the bases loaded in the ninth.
#114 = Lou Picconi’s bunts and reaches first to load the bases with no outs on a YSU fielder’s choice in the 13th.
#113 = Scott Kelley’s single in the 13th that puts runners on 1st and second with no out.
#105 = Joe Blackburn’s 12th inning grounder that the SS misplays putting runners on 1st/2nd with no outs.
#80 = Rick Marlin’s one out walk in the ninth to load the bases with PSU down 4-1.
#112 = Jack Greenberg’s lead off single in the 13th inning which became the actual winning run.
#104 = Landon Nakata’s lead off single in the 12th inning.
#115 = Wes Borden’s sacrifice fly to win the game in the 13th.

Some observations from the key plays.

1. Youngstown State did their fair share to hand the game to us in the late innings. Five of those ten key plays were YSU miscues, either walks, errors, or a failed fielder’s choice on a bunt,
2. The numbers reinforce how important it is to get the leadoff runner on in extra innings. The leadoff batter got on in the 10th, 12, and 13th innings and they each made the top ten play list.
3. The actual game winning play didn’t rank higher because it occurred with no outs. The three plays immediately before the sacrifice fly were more important because they got the eventually winning run to third and loaded the bases with no out. Even if Blackburn had failed to deliver, we still had the winning run on third and thus still had a high probability of winning the game.
4. The walk to Nakata was the game breaker. YSU was just a pitch away from winning the game until Landon walked.
5. The team had excellent opportunities to win in the tenth and twelth innings when they got leadoff runners on but couldn’t bring them around to score. This team doesn’t have much firepower and they can’t afford to miss opportunities like that often.
6. These numbers are looking at the game from an offensive perspective. What shouldn’t be overlooked is Mike Pierce’s pitching performance that kept us in a position to win.

I hope you find the numbers and analysis as interesting as I do.

Penn State wins in 13 – The Daily Collegian Online via kwout

UncleLar Take:

Just to give you a sense of how big the ninth inning comeback was, MLB stats say that a team will lose a game in which they trail by three in the ninth 97% of the time. PSU had 1 chance in 33 of pulling that win off and they did. Huge props to the team.

Baseball – Penn State University Official Athletic Site via kwout

UncleLar Take:

I have other commitments on Wednesday evenings so I wasn’t able to attend this game. It sounds like I missed one great ball game. Overcoming a three run deficit in the ninth is always thrilling. Particular props go to Mike Pierce for his four inning scoreless stint and to Scott Kelley, who entered as a pinch hitter in the eighth, for his 2-4 effort and two ninth inning RBI.

Bench key in midweek games – The Daily Collegian Online via kwout

UncleLar Take:

There’s another solution to the pressures on your pitching staff during the Big Ten Tournament – stay out of the damn losers bracket on day one. Losing that first game to Ohio State last year just killed us. All the hard work going 15-5 to end the season of getting a decent seed went down the drain in that game. The guys fought back courageously but the damage was done with that early loss.

This year looks like it could be similar. It would take a super strong effort, and somewhat of a collapse by Purdue, for us to get to second place and a first day bye (Purdue has the tiebreaker series win over us plus they don’t play Michigan so they have a fairly easy route from here on out). That means we’re playing on Day One if we manage to hold out spot in the tournament. We just can’t afford a day one loss where we have to come back and win two games on the second day.

Baseball – Penn State University Official Athletic Site via kwout

Baseball – Penn State University Official Athletic Site via kwout

Baseball – Penn State University Official Athletic Site via kwout

Baseball – Penn State University Official Athletic Site via kwout